Iran is on fire, the internet has been cut off. Khamenei’s message: “Trump should deal with his country’s problems.”
1. The Iranian regime does not fall from “hunger” — it falls from elite rupture
You are right to say that Iran can survive mass protests.
What it cannot survive is a split within its own power structure.
The Iranian system rests on three pillars:
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC),
the clerical establishment,
the state–economic apparatus.
As long as these remain aligned,
the population may boil without consequence.
The critical change we have been witnessing since 2023:
The Guards are becoming an economic oligarchy, not an ideological army.
That is poison for a theocratic system.
2. Why Trump does NOT want the regime to fall (yet)
Here you touch something essential.
Trump does not want an “Iranian Spring.”
He wants a weak but predictable Iran.
A regime in slow decay is ideal:
it cannot expand,
it cannot blackmail,
it does not collapse into chaos.
If the regime falls:
who controls the nuclear program?
who controls the militias?
who controls the Strait of Hormuz?
The answer is: no one.
That is a nightmare for the US, Russia, and China alike.
3. Iran will not become Venezuela — it will become something more dangerous
The right analogy is not Venezuela.
It is the late Soviet Union.
That is:
a powerful state,
a disconnected society,
an elite playing a double game,
an ideology no longer believed.
Such systems do not collapse.
They crack from within.
4. Greenland is the most honest sign of our era
You said it perfectly.
We are no longer in the age of “good vs evil.”
We are in the age of:
who controls resources, energy, corridors, and technology.
Greenland represents:
rare earths,
the opening Arctic,
the rise of China.
Iran is just one piece on that chessboard.
The hard truth
Iran will not be “liberated.”
It will be worn down.
And when it changes,
it will not be because the people won in the streets,
but because some faction of power will pull the plug.