1. Origins and the Making of a Leader

Born: 15 June 1953, Beijing, China.

Father: Xi Zhongxun, a prominent revolutionary and senior Communist Party official.

Political position: General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party since 2012; President of the People’s Republic of China since 2013.

Xi Jinping was born into one of China’s revolutionary families. He belongs to the group commonly known as the princelings — the children of senior Communist Party figures.

His early life, however, was far from privileged.

During Mao Zedong’s Cultural Revolution, his father was politically persecuted, and the young Xi was sent in 1969 to the countryside in Shaanxi province, where he experienced rural hardship and agricultural labour.

These experiences may have contributed to his political outlook: discipline, endurance, loyalty to the Party and an understanding of the mechanisms of political power.

We should nevertheless avoid pretending that we can establish his personality with certainty from biographical evidence alone.

2. The Consolidation of Power

In 2012, Xi became General Secretary of the Communist Party. In 2013, he assumed the presidency.

From the beginning, one central objective became apparent: restoring the authority of the Communist Party and concentrating political power at the centre.

His anti-corruption campaign was one of the defining features of his leadership.

It produced genuine results, bringing punishment to thousands of officials. However, it also weakened political rivals and strengthened Xi’s personal authority.

In 2018, China abolished the constitutional limit of two consecutive presidential terms. In 2022, Xi secured an unprecedented third term as Communist Party leader.

The post-Mao system of collective leadership and relatively predictable succession was effectively dismantled.

Historical assessment: Xi has strengthened the Chinese state and its governing party, but has weakened institutional constraints on his own personal authority.

3. Major Achievements

It would be historically unfair to assess Xi exclusively through the lens of authoritarianism.

China has achieved considerable progress during his leadership.

• • Economic and technological power: China has strengthened its position in manufacturing, renewable energy, electric vehicles and advanced technologies.

• • Infrastructure: The country has continued expanding its enormous high-speed railway and transportation networks.

• • Poverty reduction: In 2021, the Chinese government declared that extreme rural poverty had been eliminated according to its national poverty criteria.

• • International influence: China’s diplomatic, economic and strategic presence has expanded across Asia, Africa and Latin America.

However, these achievements cannot be attributed exclusively to Xi.

They are also the result of decades of economic development, the work of hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens and the reforms introduced by previous leaders.

4. The Dark Side of His Leadership

This is perhaps the most troubling aspect of Xi’s political legacy.

• • Freedom of expression: Censorship and state control of the internet have intensified.

• • Hong Kong: The National Security Law imposed in 2020 significantly restricted political freedoms and opposition activity.

• • Xinjiang: Mass detention of Uyghurs and other predominantly Muslim minorities, alongside allegations of forced labour and other serious human rights violations, constitutes one of the gravest controversies of his presidency.

• • Political opposition: There is virtually no meaningful space for an independent, organised political opposition.

My assessment is straightforward: the stability Xi seeks to achieve comes at a considerable cost — the erosion of individual freedoms and political autonomy.

5. Economic Policy: Success with Clouds on the Horizon

Xi is pursuing an economic model that combines market mechanisms with strong state control.

His strategy rests on three principal objectives:

1. 1. Technological self-sufficiency, reducing China’s dependence on the United States and Western economies.

1. 1. Strengthening domestic manufacturing and strategic industries.

1. 1. Increasing political oversight of private capital and major corporations.

This approach has produced impressive results in electric vehicles, batteries, solar energy and industrial production.

Nevertheless, significant structural weaknesses remain:

• • The property-market crisis.

• • High levels of debt.

• • Weak domestic consumer demand.

• • Demographic ageing and population decline.

• • Uncertainty created by excessive government intervention in business.

Here lies a fundamental contradiction: Xi wants China to become a world leader in innovation while simultaneously restricting some of the entrepreneurial independence that makes innovation possible.

6. Foreign Policy: China Demands a Leading Role

This is one of the most consequential dimensions of his leadership.

Xi has moved away from the relatively restrained international posture associated with Deng Xiaoping.

He wants China not merely to participate in the international order, but to become one of the principal forces shaping it.

The Belt and Road Initiative is a central instrument of this ambition.

Through investments in ports, railways, energy systems and infrastructure, China seeks to expand its economic and diplomatic influence.

At the same time, Beijing:

• • Strengthens its strategic partnership with Russia.

• • Seeks greater influence within international institutions.

• • Promotes a multipolar world order that challenges American predominance.

• • Increases military pressure around Taiwan.

An important distinction must be made: seeking a multipolar international order is not inherently illegitimate or aggressive.

The problem arises when such ambitions involve coercion, threats or disregard for the self-determination of other peoples.

Taiwan remains perhaps the greatest strategic test of Xi’s leadership.

A military conflict over the island could trigger a global economic and geopolitical crisis.

7. Xi Jinping Compared with China’s Great Leaders

This comparison helps us understand his historical significance.

Mao Zedong (1949–1976)

Founder of the People’s Republic of China. A revolutionary figure of enormous historical influence, but responsible for catastrophic policies, including the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.

Deng Xiaoping (1978–1992)

Architect of China’s economic transformation. Opened the country to markets and foreign investment while maintaining Communist Party political control.

Jiang Zemin (1993–2003)

Continued economic liberalisation and oversaw China’s accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001.

Hu Jintao (2002–2012)

Presided over rapid economic growth and a more collective approach to Communist Party leadership.

Xi Jinping (2012–present)

Re-centralisation of political power, technological and military modernisation, global strategic ambitions and the strengthening of authoritarian rule.

The historical distinction is significant:

• • Mao created the political foundations of Communist China.

• • Deng created the economic foundations of its rise.

• • Xi is attempting to transform that economic power into comprehensive global influence.

Whether he will succeed remains uncertain.

8. The Final Historical Verdict

Let us summarise the assessment across five dimensions.

My Historical Judgment

Xi Jinping is unquestionably one of the most consequential political leaders of the twenty-first century.

He possesses strategic ambition, patience, political skill and an extraordinary ability to mobilise the machinery of a vast state.

However, his historical significance cannot be measured solely by the economic and geopolitical power he is building.

His greatest political weakness is that he increasingly identifies China’s strength with the power of the Communist Party, and the Party’s strength with his own personal authority.

This may generate short-term efficiency, but it creates substantial long-term risks:

• • Decisions made without meaningful criticism.

• • Excessive concentration of political responsibility.

• • Weak institutional succession mechanisms.

• • The possibility of serious strategic miscalculations.

I would describe him neither as a new Mao nor as an unqualified great moderniser.

I would describe him as an ambitious architect of a powerful China who places political power and state authority above individual political freedom.

The final historical verdict will depend on two fundamental questions:

Can he lead China towards sustainable and peaceful global influence?

And can he avoid a catastrophic war, particularly over Taiwan?

A Final Question for Historical Reflection

Let us conclude with a question that goes beyond Xi Jinping himself:

Can an authoritarian leader modernise a country and transform it into a global superpower without politically modernising its society?

Xi Jinping appears to believe that the answer is yes.

History, however, has not yet delivered its final judgment.

Perhaps that is the most fascinating chapter still to be written — by Xi Jinping himself, and ultimately by the generations that will judge his legacy.

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A Concluding Thought

The greatness of a nation should not be measured solely by the power of its state, the size of its economy or the strength of its army, but also by the freedom, dignity and opportunities it offers its people.

End of the Historical Examination.